USCM Challenges City Crime Rankings
By Ed Somers
December 17, 2007
A year-long effort by The U.S. Conference of Mayors to question the validity of the “Most Dangerous Cities” crime rankings resulted in serious media questioning of the data upon release on November 19. The effort was begun by St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay after his city was named most dangerous last year.
“These rankings are based on the misuse of FBI data,” said Rochester (NY) Mayor Robert Duffy, a former police chief and Chairman of the Conference of Mayors Criminal and Social Justice Committee. “And they would be laughable were it not for the genuine damage they inflict on the convention business, economic development and tourist trade – not to mention the civic pride – of the cities that come out on the wrong end for no legitimate reason. We are urging media outlets, which have given the rankings broad coverage in the past, to reconsider their approach,” added Duffy.
Duffy was referring to an annual ranking of the “safest” and “most dangerous” U.S. cities compiled for the last 13 years by Morgan Quitno Press. CQ Press, a division of Congressional Quarterly, Inc., purchased Morgan Quitno in June 2007 and began publishing these rankings this year.
Morgan Quitno’s rankings are loosely based on the FBI’s annual Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) statistics. Among the reasons the rankings are inaccurate the Conference of Mayors said are:
In computing the rankings, Morgan Quitno/CQ weights automobile theft as equal to homicide. “Most people would probably prefer to have their car stolen than to be murdered,” Duffy noted. “You would not know this from the rankings.”
The rankings are shaped in good measure by the geography of the city they examine. Older U.S. cities are generally smaller and do not contain middle-class, low-crime areas that lie in their suburbs; newer cities, by contrast, tend to have wider boundaries that contain these neighborhoods.
FBI Disclaimer
The FBI became so concerned by the rankings that it posted a disclaimer on the web site where it posts the UCR figures. The disclaimer stated:
“Caution Against Ranking - Each year when crime in the United States is published, some entities use reported figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, or region. Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents. Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction. The data user is, therefore, cautioned against comparing statistical data of individual reporting units from cities, metropolitan areas, states, or colleges or universities solely on the basis of their population coverage or student enrollment.”
Media Questions Rankings
As compared to previous years, the media coverage of the new release was much more balanced. The Associated Press story quoted Duffy as saying, “What I take exception to is the use of these statistics and the damage they inflict on a number of these cities.” And FBI official Rob Casey, who has worked closely with the Conference of Mayors on this effort, said, “You’re not comparing apples and oranges; you’re comparing watermelons and grapes.”
|
