By Crystal Swann
October 17, 2005

As the flu season approaches, the administration plans to release its national influenza strategy outlining how the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services may react during a pandemic including taking such actions as quarantines and travel restrictions. Within the plan are preparation strategies for local and state governments in the event of pandemic. As discussed last year at the Conference of Mayors Akron Leadership meeting, Dr. Benjamin Schwartz, associate director for science, epidemiology and surveillance at the National Vaccine Program Office impressed upon the mayors that a flu pandemic was inevitable. It is not a matter of “if, but when.”

Every year, mayors and local health officials plan for the coming flu season. This year, the outlook is complicated by the possible advent of avian flu, a virus found in wild birds that can be deadly to domestic birds and has in about 136 cases been transmitted from birds to humans, so far killing about 67 people, entirely in Asia–a lethality rate of slightly less than half. In humans, the virus seems to be exceptionally lethal and humans have no immunity to it. However, as of yet, there has been very little transmission of bird flu from human to human, none of it confirmed. The major question is whether the virus will mutate so as to become easily transmissible between humans. In that event, a worldwide pandemic might kill vast numbers of people. There are many unanswered questions about prevention of bird flu, which has different strains; other complexities and no current vaccine.

Local health departments, which are charged with vaccinating, surveillance, and monitoring of public health in cities, are working diligently with increasingly less funding and insufficient capacity. It is widely acknowledged that should an outbreak of avian flu occur, the public health system and the medical care system do not have the surge capacity to handle the increase demand for vaccine or medical care.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, because of the uncertainties regarding production of influenza vaccine, the exact number of available doses and the timing of vaccine distribution for the this year’s flu season remain unknown. However, no particular difficulties are anticipated in regard to this more usual kind of flu. For more information on influenza or avian flu, please visit www.cdc.gov or the World Health Organization, www.who.int/en/.