By Kevin McCarty and David Gatton
October 13, 2008

A new metro Green Jobs report prepared for The U.S. Conference of Mayors Climate Protection Center projects a fivefold increase in Green Jobs over the next three decades through the increased use of renewable energy resources for electricity, alternative fuels in the transportation sector and improved energy efficiency in homes and commercial buildings.

Prepared by Global Insight, the report estimates current Green Jobs at more than 750,000 and potential Green Jobs to exceed 4.2 million by 2038. It also provides a first-ever Green Jobs Index for the nation’s metro areas to support mayors and other leaders in measuring how many direct and indirect jobs are in the new and emerging U.S. green economy.

“This report and its Green Jobs Index sets a new baseline so all of America can keep track of the growth in Green Jobs from the investments we must now make in moving to a green economy,” said Conference of Mayors President Miami Mayor Manny Diaz. “This will help us measure and show the public the economic benefits of an aggressive national commitment to a carbon-free economy.”

By creating the Green Jobs Index with Global Insight, the Conference’s Mayors Climate Protection Center plans to release periodic updates on Green Jobs creation in U.S. metro areas and analyze the impact of various legislative proposals in promoting Green Jobs.

The report, Current and Potential Green Jobs in the U.S. Economy, was released during the Mayors -08 Forum on Environment and Energy that was held October 1-2 in Miami (FL). “We are firmly convinced that what we need in this country is a green revolution,” Diaz said at a press event during the Forum. “It proves that being green is not optional, it is necessary for a healthy and robust economy.”

The potential growth in Green Jobs is significant in that it could be the fastest growing segment of the United States economy over the next several decades and dramatically increase its share of total employment, according to a key finding in the study. It also adds that Green Jobs could provide as much as ten percent of new job growth over the next 30 years.

The estimates of potential Green Jobs in 2038 are nationwide numbers, although the analysis allocates these job increases to each metro area according to the existing shares (2006 baseline) of Green Jobs. On this subject specifically, the report states, “We fully expect, however, that as with high-technology jobs, metropolitan areas will compete with each other in order to draw the maximum number of Green Jobs to their economies.”

“We can now measure and show how Green Jobs and climate protection go hand in hand,” said Conference Vice President Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels. “We have a first glimpse into the future and the sizable economic benefits that will accrue from a green economy.”

Nickels has spearheaded a national climate protection movement, with almost 900 mayors now signing The U.S. Conference of Mayors’ Climate Protection Agreement, committing their cities to the goal of meeting the Kyoto Protocols for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Through this groundbreaking report, the Conference’s Mayors Climate Protection Center has made a real contribution to the broad effort to redirect America’s energy and climate policies,” said Conference CEO and Executive Director Tom Cochran. “The nearly 900 mayors, backed by the Mayors Climate Protection Center, are committed to bolstering Congressional support for global agreements that protect the planet.”

According to the study, Green Jobs are distributed evenly between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, with approximately 85 percent located in metro areas, roughly the population share of these areas. Among the nation’s 363 metropolitan areas, however, current Green Jobs are not distributed uniformly, as shown in the report’s Appendix (see: usmayors.org/GreenJobsReport).

In 2006, the top ten metros with the highest number of Green Jobs accounted for 23 percent of all Green Jobs nationally. New York City ranks first, with 25,021 jobs, followed by Washington (DC) (24,287), Houston (21,250), Los Angeles (20,136), Boston (19,799), Chicago (16,120), Philadelphia (14,379), San Francisco (13,848), San Diego (11,663), and Pittsburgh (9,627). The accompanying chart provides a listing of the Top 25 Metros for Green Jobs.

In developing the 2038 job estimates, analysts at Global Insight modeled three scenarios: 40 percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. will come from alternative resources (30 percent from wind; 20 percent from solar; 10 percent from incremental hydropower; 10 percent from geothermal; and 30 percent from biomass); 35 percent reduction in energy use in existing homes and commercial buildings; and 30 percent of gasoline and diesel demand for passenger cars and light trucks will be satisfied by alternative fuels.

Achievement of these scenarios produce an estimated 1.23 million jobs related to renewable energy production, 1.5 million jobs in alternative transportation fuels, 1.4 million jobs in engineering, legal, research and consulting positions, and 81,000 jobs from commercial and residential retrofits, according to the study. The chart below displays estimates from the report on potential Green Jobs, by decade and category.