By Rich Anderson
September 25, 2006

The Mayors Water Council convened the 2006 Annual Water Summit in Santa Barbara (CA) September 13-14. Albuquerque (NM) Mayor Martin J. Chávez and Fayetteville (AR) Mayor Dan Coody, Cochairmen of the Mayors Water Council were joined by host city Santa Barbara (CA) Mayor Marty Blum.

The 2006 Water Summit covered a number of water resource issues. Topics included: climate change impacts on water infrastructure; emergency preparedness and disaster recovery; infrastructure financing; water supply planning and conservation; and public education efforts to value water resources. (PowerPoint presentations will be posted on the Conference of Mayors website at usmayors.org under the Mayors Water Council section.)

Chet Koblinsky, Director of the Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), provided one of the most comprehensive and useful treatises on the current and future impacts of global warming on cities and their water resources, changing weather patterns and unique challenges they will face in the coming years.

Koblinsky makes a strong case for expected major changes projected to the year 2100 caused by chain reactions linked to the growing build-up of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The forecast involves temperature changes of 2ª to 6ª F (an increase that exceeds natural changes over the past 10,000 years); and a rise in sea level of 4 to 35 inches. The changing weather patterns are likely to lead to greater intensity precipitation; more severe and damaging tropical storms; and, increased severity of drought in some parts of North America because atmospheric water vapor will shift as temperature rises. Interestingly, during the Summit, a catastrophic wildfire was in progress in surrounding areas of the California Los Padres National Forest, and area that has limited precipitation.

Koblinsky highlighted the challenges we will face as a nation with world population increases projected to reach nine billion by 2050. The era of mega-city growth will expand around the globe with four billion new people. The expanding population will be accompanied by an increase in the senior citizens age cohorts, overdevelopment in coastal regions subject to rising sea levels, and drought conditions leading to increased difficulty in ensuring an adequate and affordable water supply. Additional challenges will involve the need to grow sustainable food supplies by 200 to 300 percent of output per hectare, a growing demand for fossil fuels and energy security, and public health threats from increased pollution. Ironically, the environmental gains made by the USA over the last three decades may be vulnerable to reversal trends due to the population growth in a climate change induced stress on resources.

According to Koblinsky, NOAA is rising to the challenges faced in the USA by developing tools desperately needed to help cities adapt to change. He described the Agency’s efforts to build a “Climate Service.” NOAA is developing new capabilities through establishing partnerships with other agencies and organizations to diagnose issues, share information, and communicate with state and local government. One of the key elements of the new capabilities is to make weather forecasting more relevant and “immediate” by continuing to refine the scale of resolution of prediction. Currently, the Agency is able to project changes over a meso-scale geographic area. The plan is to refine projection capabilities to a 4 kilometer grid area: an information level that will be useful to many agricultural and industrial users as well as city planners.

Jeff Kishel, from Montgomery Watson and Harza (MWH), focused his discussion on the climate change impacts on coastal communities. Kishel recently participated in an MWH sponsored conference on the subject. MWH convened climate experts, watershed managers and city planners from around the nation to identify climate change impacts and adaptive strategies to preserve resources and protect infrastructure.

Two of the most immediate impacts identified by the participants were water supply shortages and urban drainage that disrupt mobility and damage public infrastructure and private property. Kishel said that the experts also identified a larger group of impacts that cities could expect from climate change in the present and the near future: storm surge and rising sea levels; river and intra-urban flooding; infrastructure finance costs from asset damage; energy impacts including loss of hydropower, blackouts, etc.; ecological impacts to species and habitats; degradation of water quality and increased costs to treat drinking water; and a general increased threat to public health and safety. MWH has been in the forefront of providing planning and strategies to communities to address these concerns in recent years. Kishel pointed to planning work MWH has done for communities in the United Kingdom on urban drainage mitigation. He said that the consulting community has developed capabilities to both adapt and mitigate climate change impacts.

Christine Cooper of Black & Veatch presented findings from a report on a joint Water Environment Federation - Black & Veatch - Utility assessment of 25 utilities impacted by storm surge, flood and wind damage in Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi from Hurricane Katrina. The findings provided a sobering assessment of climate change induced impacts in coastal communities. Cooper stated that it took a significant effort to map the storm surge zone, but that NOAA’s satellite imaging service available on the internet was very useful. She said imaging information indicated that a 15 to 25 foot storm surge went more than a mile inland in Mississippi, and further where waterways were situated. Reinforced concrete structures fared well in the surge, but electric circuitry, pumps and motors, and power generators were damaged or destroyed. Basins were filled with grit. Above-ground portions of lift stations were heavily damaged. Cities experienced 25 to 80 percent population loss that impacted their utility rate base. This was most pronounced in surge areas located in Louisiana. So, not only was the infrastructure heavily damaged, but the rate base necessary to raise funds to repair it was substantially reduced. Cooper enlightened many of the participating mayors by pointing out that water and sewer employees are designated first responders in emergencies.

Mark W. Cowin, Chief of the California Department of Water Resources Division of Planning and Local Assistance, presented information on California’s recent study of climate change and water resources, (see baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/climatechange.cfm). Cowin stated that the state faces unique challenges in dealing with climate change impacts. Two-thirds of the state’s surface water runoff occurs north of Sacramento, but two-thirds of the population lives south of Sacramento. The state’s population of 36 million is expected to reach 48 million by 2030. A combination of increased temperatures, changes in rainfall and runoff and a rising sea level make water resources planning in the large area state difficult. California has long relied on snow pack to replenish water supplies. Less snow fall and earlier snow melt has changed the normal pattern of supply replenishment. Cowin stated that the Department estimates that a 3ª C increase in temperatures will result in a four to five million acre-foot decrease in Sierra snow pack from an estimated total of 14 million acre-foot per year.

California has adopted an action plan to achieve “Sustainable and Reliable Water in 2030.” Cowin reported that the plan is driven by a vision of a vital economy, healthy environment and high standard of living. Two major initiatives to achieve the vision include integrating regional water management, and improve overall statewide water management systems. The Department of Water Resources will realize the vision by adopting policies to use water efficiently, protect water quality and support environmental stewardship. He said that a very rough estimate of the cost to achieve the 2030 goals could reach a cost of $3 billion/year.