By John Timoney
September 14, 2009

Last week, I received an e-mail from a parent who was very concerned about the number of guns that are out in the street being used by criminals, and wanted to know what was being done about it.

So I want to revisit a program sponsored by the Miami-Dade Police Department that I wrote about last year, and asked Maj. Jim Dibernardo to give me an update and explain how this program is working.

As of Dec. 31, the department has received 1,048 tips, recovered 245 guns and made 147 arrests. Of the guns recovered, 36 were high-powered rifles, 178 were revolver/semi-automatic weapons and 31 were shotguns.

The final crime statistics for the first six months of 2009 in the city of Miami have just been sent to the FBI by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, and it is a good-news story. Overall, crime is down 15 percent, with violent crime down 16 percent and property crime down 14 percent.

These numbers fly in the face of conventional wisdom, which maintains that in an economy such as the one we are currently facing, with double-digit unemployment, crime should increase. The fact is there is no direct correlation between the economy and crime; look no further than the Great Depression when crime rates were not affected by more than 20 percent unemployment.

Additionally, over the past year we have been monitoring closely those we arrest. If the economy affected crime as claimed, we would be arresting persons for the first or second time. Unfortunately, those we arrest continue to be the same “frequent flyers” with significant criminal histories.

For Miami, the decline in crime continues a trend that began more than two decades ago and continued through the eight years of Mayor Manny Diaz’s administration. What is amazing is that there are still some in South Florida and across the nation who believe that Miami has a significant crime problem. Nothing could be further from the truth.

I have seen this phenomenon in other cities. I call it “Timoney’s Rule No. 1 on Crime.” Perception lags reality, and reality lags perception. Translation: If a city has a significant crime problem, it will also have a crime “perception” problem, even when the crime figures begin to show improvement. Similarly, a city that does not have a crime problem but experiences a crime increase will continue to be “perceived” as safe for some period of time. Perception and reality are often shaped by media coverage, or sometimes lack of coverage, of crime trends. In addition, “sensational” crimes will always have a disproportionate impact on “perception.”

A review of Miami’s crime records for the past five decades (back to 1960) is instructive: 1980 was the deadliest year in the city’s history when 220 murders were recorded in a city of 335,000 residents; in 2005, with a population of 410,000, the city recorded only 54 murders, the lowest number since 1967. Last year, 63 people were killed. When you compare today’s numbers to the base year, 1980, murder has been reduced more than 70 percent.

Most long-time residents will remember almost two decades ago when Miami’s “tourist robberies” dominated national and international headlines. In 1991, a total of 8,542 persons were robbed, the highest number of robberies in the city’s history. Last year, 2,415 individuals were victims of robbery, a reduction of 72 percent from the high base year.

Also, 1989 was the single worst year for burglaries with 15,350 burglaries reported. Last year, a total of 4,941 burglaries were reported, a 68 percent decrease from the record high. Similarly, stolen cars have been reduced 67 percent from 11,178 in 1993 to 3,666 last year. Last 1989 was the record year for overall reported crime when 70,053 Part One crimes (homicides, sexual battery, robbery and aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, auto theft and arson) were logged. Last year, 28,099 Part One crimes were reported, which represented a 60-percent reduction from the high base year.

Using a conservative extrapolation for the rest of 2009, I estimate that Mayor Diaz will leave office with overall crime reduced by 30 percent during his eight-year tenure. The mayor, City Manager Pete Hernandez and the City Commission can feel proud of their decision to “invest” taxpayers’ dollars in the Miami Police Department over the past several years. The men and women of the MPD have responded admirably to the new leadership in the department and have worked hard to protect the residents of this great city.

John Timoney is Miami’s Chief of Police.