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Hispanic Voters Critical to Outcome of ’08 Presidential Race

By Vincent Martinez, USCM Intern
August 25, 2008


The Hispanic vote is expected to play a key role in the upcoming presidential election. Both Presidential candidates are mobilizing to capture this united voting bloc. In 2004, 16.1 million Hispanics were eligible to vote, whereas 7.6 million reported voting, approximately 47 percent of those eligible. But Hispanic voter turnout in November is expected to surpass 2004 levels due to a combination of hot button issues, presidential candidates, voter mobilization efforts and get-out-the-vote programming.

Presidential candidates Senator Barrack Obama (IL) and Senator John McCain (AZ) have fought vigorously to gain the Hispanic vote, often times campaigning at the same events, such as the League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) National Convention on July 8 and the National Council of La Raza Annual Conference (NCLR) on July 14.

Obama has invested $20 million on a campaign for a Hispanic outreach program in order to gain key Hispanic battleground states, which include radio and television ads in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Florida. McCain gained popularity from the Hispanic community through his support for a comprehensive immigration reform bill that he co'sponsored along with Senator Edward M. Kennedy (MA), legislation that failed in the Senate. McCain is also hoping that Obamas’ struggle to gain popularity with Hispanic voters continue along the same path as the primaries, where Senator Hillary Clinton (NY) garnered a majority of the Hispanic vote.

Currently 18.2 million Hispanics are eligible to vote, approximately nine percent of all eligible voters nationwide. U.S. Projections indicate that nearly 10.6 million Hispanics could register to vote this fall, a significant increase over the 9.3 million registered Hispanic voters in 2004. Of these, it is predicted that as many as 8.6 million Hispanics will vote in this year’s general election in comparison to 7.6 million in 2004. Key states that President Bush carried in 2004 by five percentage points or less, boast large Hispanic populations, in particular New Mexico (37 percent), Florida (14 percent), Nevada (12 percent) and Colorado (12 percent). These states could very well determine the outcome in this year’s elections. States with the largest Hispanic population include California (13.1 million), Texas (8.4 million), Florida (3.6 million), New York (3.1 million), and Illinois (1.9 million).

The number of Hispanics expected to register and vote (about 14 percent) is expected to be larger than the growth of the Hispanic population (about 13 percent). This is due in large part to a shift in age groups and generations in the U.S., to a higher ratio of those eligible to register and vote than that of the 2004 elections.

Inertia in Washington, Immigration Reform Unresolved, Diaz Creates Task Force to Advance Mayors’ Positions

Immigration reform remains a prominent issue nationally and requires urgent attention on Capitol Hill. The U.S. Conference of Mayors position on immigration reform is unequivocal. The Conference believes that reform is urgently needed and must be comprehensive along with stronger boarder security. While Washington has shown itself to be hesitant to advance public debate on the issue, Conference President Miami Mayor Manny Diaz has created a Comprehensive Immigration Reform Task Force to advance the mayors’ positions.

The Task Force is chaired by Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon with Co-Chairs Conference Trustee and Co-Chair of the Mayors Water Council Albuquerque Mayor Martin J. Chávez; Advisory Board member and Tourism, Arts, Parks, Entertainment and Sports Committee Vice-Chair Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett; Past President Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley; Trustee Detroit Mayor Kwame M. Kilpatrick; Advisory Board member and Co-Chair of Metropolitan Economies Committee Dallas Mayor Thomas C. Leppert; Yuma Mayor Lawrence K. Nelson who chaired the Mayors Task Force on Border Issues, Advisory Board and Vice Chair of Children, Health and Human Services Committee San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom; Transportation Vice Chair for Surface Ports Laredo Mayor Raul G. Salinas, and Trustee and Co-Chair of the Mayors Task Force on Poverty, Work and Opportunity Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa.

The U.S. Conference of Mayors policy advocates improved border security and infrastructure, the reunification of families, a path to legal status and earned citizenship and a workable guest worker program. The Conference recognizes the economic, social and cultural contributions immigrants bring to their communities and supports immigration policy reform, which emphasizes:

  • A workable and efficient guest worker program to help satisfy the country’s labor and employment needs and that will provide a safe and orderly process for allowing immigrant workers to pursue key jobs that are essential to economic growth;

  • Stronger border security; and

  • A path to earned citizenship for undocumented immigrants living and working in the country provided 1) they have not committed serious crimes; 2) they have learned, or are in the process of learning English, and 3) they pay taxes and social security on their earnings.

These positions are the result of three years of deliberate discussion on the topic. In 2006 the Mayors unanimously adopted Resolution No. 38, “In Support of Border Security and Comprehensive Immigration Reform” sponsored by Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, Stamford Mayor Dannel P. Malloy, Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels, Providence Mayor David N. Cicilline and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa. These positions were reiterated at the Annual Conference in Los Angeles in 2007 and Miami in 2008.

Improve Border Infrastructure, Increase Staffing

Resolution 49 “Increasing Customs and Border Protection Staffing and Improving Infrastructure at International Ports of Entry,” sponsored by Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa, San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders, Buffalo Mayor Byron W. Brown, Rochester Mayor Robert Duffy, Laredo Mayor Raul Salinas, Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels, Oakland Mayor Ronald Dellums, and Baltimore Mayor Sheila Dixon, deals with the problem of border security. The Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), has the role of facilitating trade and travel while ensuring the safety and security of the U.S., but is severely understaffed. Robust funding should be allocated to U.S. Customs and Border Protection to improve border entry infrastructure, including the hiring of full-time CBP officers, CBP Agriculture Specialists, and security support personnel to satisfy the critical needs of international land, sea and air ports-of-entry, and ensure efficient processing of travelers who enter the country on a daily basis.

Reform Immigration Policy Before Deportation

At the Mayors Annual Conference in Miami this past June, the mayors adopted Resolution No. 51 “Calling For Comprehensive Immigration Reform which Promotes the Reunification of Families, Provides Legal Status with a Path to Earned Citizenship, and a Plan for Current and Future Immigrant Workers,” which also addresses workforce enforcement issues. Sponsored by Santa Fe Mayor David Coss along with Burlington (VT) Mayor Bob Kiss, this resolution stands strongly against the separation of families due to enforcement of current immigration laws, supports reuniting “mixed status” families with U.S. citizen-children, and calls on the federal government to “cease and desist in the execution of raids and deportations that are not related to national security or criminal activity until comprehensive reform is completed.” It also calls for the immediate suspension of all deportations of parents of U.S. citizens.

Promoting Worksite Safety, Tougher Employer Enforcement

Also in Miami, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio R. Villaraigosa, Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, and Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels submitted Resolution No. 52 “U.S. Immigration and Customs Worksite Enforcement” that deals with the issue of worksite safety and enforcement by U.S. Immigration and Customs. Unfair treatment, such as unsafe working conditions and other violations of various labor laws, in relation to undocumented workers, is a widespread problem that occurs without much resistance due to fear of deportation if workers notify the authorities.

Action must be taken by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to develop worksite enforcement that focuses on employers with a history of violations or reasonable suspicion of engaging in exploitative practices such as substandard wages, long hours and unsafe working environments. The resolution urges that ICE not prioritize responsible employers for worksite enforcement activities before an accurate verification system or comprehensive immigration reform is put in place. The policy further demands that ICE consult with mayors when worksite enforcement activities occur in their cities.

For more information on the mayors’ policy on immigration and related issues, visit the website: usmayors.org.