By Rebecca Tingey, USCM Intern
July 28, 2008

The year ending in July 2007 brought small population gains to some of the nation’s older cities and slowing declines to others, according to new census figures.

Houston added nearly 39,000 residents, topping 2.2 million and leading the nation in numerical growth. Phoenix came second, followed by San Antonio, Fort Worth, New Orleans, New York City, Atlanta, Austin (TX), Charlotte (NC), and Raleigh (NC).

New York City’s population increased by about 24,000 residents, raising total population to 8.3 million. However, the annual gain was somewhat less than earlier in the decade. The slower growth could be attributed to a cooling economy since the middle of the decade, according to Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College of the City University of New York.

New Orleans grew faster than any of the bigger cities, continuing a population recovery from Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In his recent State of the City address, New Orleans Mayor C. Ray Nagin spoke of being ready “for the final push over the next two years that will drive this recovery to its highest levels and ensure the growth of our city for the next fifty years.” Still, the 239,000 residents counted in July 2007 were less than half of the population in 2000, according to the Census Bureau.

Along with New Orleans, the ten fastest-growing cities with 100,000 or more people included Victorville (CA); two Dallas suburbs, McKinney and Denton; Killeen (TX); North Las Vegas (NV); Cary (NC); Port St. Lucie (FL); Gilbert (AZ) and Clarksville (TN). Many of these booming Sun Belt cities are adolescent suburbs, adjacent to more established cities where growth has slowed somewhat.

Washington (DC) registered a small gain in the latest survey, but was bumped for the first time from the 25 most populous cities by Nashville. Washington’s city administrator Dan Tangherlini reacted optimistically. “We are happy that our population continues to grow,” he said. Nashville Mayor Karl Dean credited its nearly one percent population increase to its “vibrancy,” saying, “We are a city that has been recognized in recent years as a top location to live, work, and do business.”

Among the nation’s 25 most populous cities, Baltimore, Detroit, Memphis and Philadelphia recorded population declines. Cleveland led cities of 100,000 or more in numerical losses, down by 1.1 percent. Columbus (GA) experienced the largest percentage decrease from 2006 to 2007, attributable to a decline in the population living in military barracks.

Chicago registered its first gain of the decade, about 8,000, in the latest year, after losing about 60,000 people since 2000. Boston and Los Angeles rebounded into the plus column after recording slight losses in the year ending July 2006. San Francisco and Minneapolis continued to grow despite losses earlier in the decade.

Several factors drive these modest population gains, according to Dr. Mark Mather, associate vice president for domestic programs at the Population Reference Bureau. “Lower rates of domestic out-migration, possibly linked to the housing slump, combined with high rates of international migration and natural increase.”

Mather believes an influx of younger immigrants and their family growth in older cities is starting to offset long-term population losses.

The housing slump benefits some older cities, as outlying areas and developing cities in the South and West becomes less alluring. “Older and coastal cities are retaining more residents who otherwise might have moved to the suburbs and faster-growing regions,” said William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution. He believes this trend could accelerate if gasoline prices and commuting costs continue to grow.