By Ron Thaniel
March 28, 2011

A study released on March 14 by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) predicts that as gasoline prices continue increasing, Americans will turn to transit in record numbers.

The study reveals if regular gas prices reach $4 a gallon across the nation, as many experts have forecasted, an additional 670 million passenger trips could be expected, resulting in more than 10.8 billion trips per year. If pump prices jump to $5 a gallon, the report predicts an additional 1.5 billion passenger trips can be expected, resulting in more than 11.6 billion trips per year. And if prices were to soar to $6 a gallon, expectations go as high as an additional 2.7 billion passenger trips, resulting in more than 12.9 billion trips per year.

“The volatility of the price at the pump is another wake up call for our nation to address the increasing demand for public transportation services,” said APTA President William Millar. “We must make significant, long-term investments in public transportation or we will leave our fellow Americans with limited travel options, or in many cases, stranded without travel options. Public transit is the quickest way for people to beat high gas prices if it is available.”

According to the APTA study, many of the transit systems across the country are already seeing large ridership increases, some reaching double digits in February 2011. For instance; the South Florida Regional Transportation Authority in Pompano Beach (FL) increased by 10.6 percent; Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority of Philadelphia increased by ten percent; The Capitol Corridor Joint Powers Authority of Oakland (CA) increased by 14 percent and Triangle Transit of Research Triangle Park (NC) increased by 22.8 percent.

The projected estimates use the 2010 APTA Public Transportation Ridership Report as a baseline. The ridership is then increased by the reported elasticity multiplied by the projected price change to show ridership growth at a given increase above the average price for regular gasoline as reported in the last 2010 report by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy.

The United States Conference of Mayors is urging Congress to address this impending demand for transit by providing no less than the 128 percent increase for transit in the pending reauthorization of the federal surface transportation law, as proposed by the Obama Administration in the President’s FY 2012 Budget. In addition, the Conference of Mayors is urging the Obama Administration and Congress to reject efforts to cut transit investments, as proposed by Republicans in the House in the long-term plan to finance the government through September 30.

Contact Conference of Mayors Assistant Executive Director Ron Thaniel at rthaniel@usmayors.org for information on Conference of Mayors’ transportation infrastructure investment priorities for the reauthorization of the federal surface transportation law

Below is a sampling of systems that have reported increases in ridership in 2011, starting with those systems that have seen double-digit increases. APTA noted that not all transit systems have February figures yet.

• Durham (NC) – Durham Area Transit Authority saw a 14.8 percent increase in ridership in January and a 21.8 percent increase in February.

• Fort Wright (KY) – Transit Authority of Northern Kentucky saw an increase of 3.6 percent in January, which jumped to a 10.3 percent in February.

• Lafayette (IN) – CityBus of Greater Lafayette saw an increase in ridership of 12.6 percent in January.

• Oakland (CA) – Capitol Corridor Joint Powers Authority saw double digit increases in ridership in January (11 percent) and February (14 percent).

• Orlando (FL) – LYNX saw a 10.7 percent increase in January.

• Philadelphia (PA) – SEPTA saw a 10 percent increase in February, up from 2 percent in January.

• Pompano Beach (FL) – South Florida Regional Transportation Authority saw an increase of ridership of 6 percent in January and a double-digit increase of 10.6 percent in February.

• Raleigh (NC) – Triangle Transit saw a 17.7 percent increase of ridership in January and a 22.8 percent increase in February.

• Salt Lake City (UT) – Utah Transit Authority had a 12 percent ridership increase in January and a 4.3 percent ridership increase in February.

• San Antonio (TX) – VIA Metropolitan Transit’s Express bus service had an 18 percent increase in ridership in January.

• San Diego (CA) – Metropolitan Transit System had a 7.3 percent increase in bus ridership and a 13 percent ridership increase in trolley ridership for January.

• Tampa (FL) – Hillsborough Area Regional Transit had an 18 percent increase in ridership in January and a 19 percent ridership increase in February.

• Wenatchee (WA) – Link Transit saw a 20.8 percent increase in ridership in January and 12.4 percent ridership increase in February.