By Dave Gatton
March 5, 2012

Cities and their metros will dominate the US export market in the coming decade, accounting for 88 percent of the value of exported goods through 2020, according to a new report released by The U.S. Conference of Mayors at its national meeting on Metro Exports and Ports held in Jacksonville February 23-25.

Using various forecasts, the report estimates the export level over the current decade for the top 150 metros. Forty-one metros have the potential to achieve 70 percent or more growth in exports this decade (2011-2020), including Philadelphia, Houston, Indianapolis-Carmel, Chicago, and Davenport-Moline-Rockford.

Prepared by IHS Global Insight, the report also forecasts that exports will account for nearly 40 percent of the nation’s economic growth this decade, up dramatically from 27 percent over the last ten years.

“This could open the flood gates to more jobs across the country, “ said Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, Chair of the Conference of Mayors Metro Exports and Ports Task Force and host of the meeting. “In an increasingly globalized economy, it is vital that the U.S. take advantage of the economic opportunities opening up around the world.”

The report highlights that the fastest growing countries represent the greatest potential for metro export growth. For example, India’s GDP will grow nearly 269 percent by 2020, but currently represents only 1.5 percent of US exports. China’s GDP will grow 255 percent and represents 7.2 percent of current exports.

In fact, the world’s fastest growing economies are generally the U.S. fastest growing export destinations, led by Qatar, Vietnam, India, China, and Panama.

Over the next decade, U.S. GDP will grow by about 50 percent, ranking 46th among our top trading partners. GDP in 15 of those countries will more than double from 2011-2020. Conversely, Canada and Japan, our current largest and fourth largest trading partners, respectively, will experience growth that will trail the US.

Growth in the major U.S. durable goods exports will accelerate over the decade. Machinery exports will be the top growing durable goods export, with a 76 percent expansion. Transportation equipment manufacturing exports will rise by 68 percent, while chemical exports, the fastest growing non-durable segment, will expand 80 percent over the decade.

“International trade has been one of the few fiscal bright spots as the nation slowly emerges from the recession, and it is almost entirely centered on our metro areas,” said Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, Conference of Mayors Vice-Chair of the Metro Exports and Ports Task force.

View meeting and download report at usmayors.org/exportsandimports