By Larry Tate
February 6, 2006

There were two plenary presentations on the danger of pandemic avian flu. At the Conference of Mayors 74th Winter Meeting, Conference President Long Beach Mayor Beverly O’Neill, in her introduction, said such a pandemic would be a “major threat to our national security. We must be ready to take the steps needed.”

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels spoke on flu preparedness, an area in which Seattle has been on the cutting edge. From SARS and other health challenges, he said, “We learned how quickly diseases can move around the globe. We need to be ready for anything. Infectious disease can be just one flock of birds or one plane ride away. We know it’s not a question of if, but when.” He added, “It’s not something to be frightened about, but it is something to take seriously and be prepared for.”

Normal flu outbreaks occur every year; pandemic outbreaks occur in cycles, the most recent in 1968, 1957, and 1918, and the world is overdue for another one. The current H5N1 virus, transmitted by birds, has killed 79 people and infected 148 in Asia and Turkey. A mutation facilitating transmission between humans could lead to millions of deaths worldwide, as in the 1918 pandemic.

In Seattle, Nickels said, “In the first six weeks, 1.2 million people could be infected” and a pandemic could last much longer than that. With a possible one-third of the work force disabled at any time, he said, cities would face “disruption of core public services”– not just overflows at hospitals but problems with police and fire personnel, schools, transportation, and businesses of all kinds. “You do not want people to gather together for safety,” he stressed, but for the sick to stay home and crowds to be discouraged to limit the spread of infection. Further, in a pandemic other cities would be similarly affected and unable to send aid.

Planning for a pandemic will be “complex and costly,” as all sectors that would be affected must be brought into the process to insure “continuity of core functions.” In Seattle, he gathered together all city emergency management staff and leaders from other sectors such as businesses and schools to plan the city’s response to a pandemic. He suggested that other mayors do the same, combining this with a media campaign to alert the public. “Officials must be promoting the same message,” he said.

Alex Azar, Deputy Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, covered some of the same ground as Nickels from the federal perspective. He made three main points: a pandemic is overdue; local preparation is key; and better preparation saves lives. The preparation steps he emphasized were: disease monitoring, stockpiling medical supplies, developing and distributing vaccines, planning for all civic sectors, and communications planning. There is, he said, a moral obligation to prepare, and $350 million in federal funds will be made available for the planning process. Further information can be found at the website www.pandemicflu.gov.

Both Nickels and Azar stressed that, although H5N1 may not be the pandemic virus that everyone fears, such a virus will definitely come, and that nobody in the world will be immune to it. Only planning can lessen the severity of its effects.